a government shutdown is just hours away. can congress pull it together for a last minute save? in today's cover story....an ambitious plan to create jobs plays out among 3 states in the midwest. plus....a look at a new flood insurance law in florida expected to drown residents in debt. and... traders tells us what to expect in market action as washington worries put a damper on wall street. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas good morning! it's monday, september 30th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: weighed down by washington. stocks fell friday as democrats and republicans failed to reach

a resolution on the nation's budget or the debt limit. people looking for protection bought gold futures which rose $13 dollars. and oil drift down 42 cents as tensions with iran eased following a phone call between president obama and the president of iran. blackberry's ceo is said to be leaving the company with a golden parachute worth as much as $55 million dollars. and ichan and apple. the billion investor recently revealed his fascination with the tech giant. reports say ichan is meeting with ceo of apple today. let's get the trading day started with mark sebastian of swan wealth advisors. good morning. are we in for a messy monday? > >i think that's absolutely possible. friday, while the market didn't really move very much, we saw the vix pop. i think we're starting to finally see the market react to this government business and it could really drive things

through the week. even overshadowing non farm payrolls which are usually really important. > >is the market pricing in anything different when it comes to the timeline of tapering? > >i think the problem with trying to figure out when we're tapering is that this whole government business has gotten in the way. now, prior to things really heating up it looked like the market was starting to take a look at november or december as possible start dates for tapering. > >you mentioned that the jobs number could be in jeopardy if there is a government shutdown. what else could happen this week that terrifies you or worries you at least? > >i think if stuff really gets ugly, you could see the s &p's break. 1675--while there's rhetoric and if things go south 16 and a quarter, maybe even 1600. it could be a very quick trip down if they don't solve things in the next couple of days. > >let's hope it happens. thank you mark sebastian. > >thank you.

the battle over whether the government will shutdown october first has moved back to the house of representatives. that's after the senate voted to continue to fund the government but stripped out language that would defunding obamacare. the senate passed the measure sent it over to the house, and left for the weekend--to return monday afternoon.if the house changes the senate-passed bill--such as re-inserting obamacare language, democrats who control the senate threaten won't have time to respond--and thus the government could shutdown monday at midnight. last week president obama explained to supports how republicans have tied health care reform to the budget battle. some have threatedend a government shudown if they can't shut down this law. others have actually threateened an economic shutdown by refusing to pay america's bills if they can't delay the law. that's not gonna to happen as long as i'm president. during a newsconference friday the president called on

republicans to accept the senate's measure to avoid a government shutdown. open enrollment starts tomorrow -- for the affordable heatlh care act- better known as obamacare. senator ted cruz who staged a personal fight to stop the new law-- on friday-- praised the efforts of house republicans who also worked to block obamacare. ..showed remarkable courage standing up and fighting to defund obamacare. nonetheless, president obama says with or without support from the republican party on tuesday 48 million americans who don't have health insurance -- will be able to shop for low cost coverage at healthcare.gov the kaiser family foundation has cacluator on its site that gives consumers a comparison check on health insurance prices. a couple of other points--- low and moderate income americans may be eligible for discounts when buying insurance and even if you have benefits through your employer you can still shop around. "there are certain circumstances under which people will be allowed to turn down

their job insurance, and go on the marketplace and try to buy something better. nancy metcalf adds that consumer reports uncovered large variations in the way states are rolling out heatlh are reform. a former allstate insurance employee is suing over lost life insurance. garnet turner worked for allstate from 1963 to 1995. according to the lawsuit, he was promised 90 thousand dollars of free life insurance for the rest of his life. allstate stopped offering free life insurance for retirees in july. a spokesperson says the company is making changes to cut costs, and-- benefits are still in line with competitors. detroit receives a financial lifeline from the obama administration. 320 million dollars in federal and private aid is proposed to help the bankrupt city. the money will go toward redeveloping properties, additional police and revamping the city's transportation systems. white house officials say there may be more money to come, however a federal bailout is unlikely. wisconsin governor scott walker

ran on a campaign pledge to create a quarter of a million new jobs in his first term. so far, wisconsin's added 89- thousand. our cover story looks at how wisconsin and other states plan to find their way upward in the recovery. wisconsin governor scott walker blames slow job growth on his critics who protested his anti- labor policies shortly after taking office and pushed for a recall election, last year. "employers in the state were frozen. they were uncertain what was going to happen with the recall. but i think by the end of the year, we'll see a significant increase." in terms of job growth, the labor department ranks wisconsin 34th in the nation--- recovering--- slower than the national average by about half. but illinois is 39th and indiana 21st. with that in mind, regional leaders meeting in chicago, suggested advanced manufacturing may lead the

economic way out. one key is how to encourage young people to go into it---and impress upon them that it is not necessarily assembly line work. "it's not your grandfather's manufacturing. you need computer skills to work within this environment." economists such as austan goolsbee see a future in u-s manufacturing for export markets--but right now, our traditional export partners in europe are in worse shape and unlikely to buy. midwest commerce secretaries see opportunities extending from the heartland in the near-term. "not only do we make it, we can ship it. we are in the center for logistics."

overall, university of chicago economist austan goolsbee predicts two percent g-d-p growth in the u-s-for the next 12-to-18 months--due in part to sluggish economies among u-s global trading partners. the government agency that backs mortgages for low and middle income borrowers-- needs a quick cash infusion. the federal housing administration says it must draw $1.7 billion dollars of taxpayer money today from the treasury to cover projected losses connected to reverse mortgages. the department currently has $30 billion in reserves. it's the first bailout for the agency. lumber liquidators could soon face a hard knock. federal authorties with immigration and customs recently executed a search warrant at the retailers headquarters in virginia. it's not clear what they were after. usa today reports the company is cooperating with authorities and has turned over information relating to the importation of certain products. the stock fell $7 dollars friday. fewer americans are on the move. census data finds 11.7% of the population moved in 20-13. that is only slightly above an all time low of 11.6% in 20-11. we are hearing as home prices continue to rise, more americans are staying put.

more americans are making long distance moves than they were at the worst of the recession. also fewer are making the shorter distance moves that people tend to make when they are looking for cheaper and better housing. that was jed kolko of real estate site trulia dot com. the study also finds that fewer younger americans are moving, a trend tied to unemployment. its setting up to be a big week for ipos. among the companies: real estate company re/max. the housing market rebound could make this a stock to watch. its expected to begin trading wednesday, with the stock likely to price between 19 and 21 dollars. burlington coat factory is also expected to debut wednesday and hoping to sell 13-million shares between 14 and 16 dollars. and reports say sandwich chain potbelly will list on the nasdaq thursday, with shares expected to price between 9 and 11 dollars. humans are to blame for climate change, according to a report. the intergovernmental panel on climate change says global

warming is 95 percent caused by man-made carbon dioxide emissions. the last two centuries are the warmest in the last 800 years. the study says global warming is resulting in extreme weather disasters, such tornadoes and floods. critics believe weather patterns are cyclical. the state department is stepping up security in the u.s. malls, sporting events and other high population areas are on guard following horrific terror attacks at a kenya shopping center last week. officials say they remain concerned over possible terror threats on u.s. citizens. a rebel group linked to al-qaida killed 67 people in a mall attack in nairobi, last week. the insurance institute for highway safety is out with its list of vehicles that rank best at alerting drivers of a possible collision. subaru legacy tops the list. followed by the outback, cadillac ats, caddy srx, mercedes-benz c-class and the volvo s60 and xc60. microsoft is searching for a new ceo ... and the ceo of ford

reportedly is on the short list. all things digital reports ford ceo alan mulally is in the forefront to replace microsoft ceo steve ballmer. mulally has served as ford's ceo since 2006, is a former engineer and has experience with corporate turnarounds. a usa today report names nokia ceo stephen elop is also a possible contender for the top spot at microsoft. the faa gets a look this week at a study on how electronic devices affect flights. last week an faa advisory committee recommended that --on a limited basis-- airline passengers should be allowed to use smartphones, tablets, e-readers and other devices during takeoffs and landings. newer jets are equipped to prevent electronic interference. mounting evidence suggests you should take yelp reviews with a grain of salt. yelp says around 25% of user reviews submitted are considered "suspicious" by yelp's filtering process. the company admits some of the phony reviews may make it onto the site. it's a problem that led new york's attorney general to crackdown on phony business reviews. as a result, 19- companies were fined for generating false reviews.

fans are still recovering from last night's series finale of the hit series breaking bad -- we won't spoil it for those of you who haven't caught up yet. millions tuned in for the last episode. advertisers couldn't be happier. the going rate for a 30 second spot on the finale was a whopping 250 thousand dollars. women in hollywood are getting a funding boost behind the camera. a new fund called "game changer" plans to help provide financing for movies directed by women. the fund hopes to provide as much as five million dollars to help women directors in an industry in which women make up half of all film school graduates but only 7% of directors of top-grossing films. the fund will fully or partly finance 10 films in the years to come. still to come: at this critical time for congress, wise wordes from the trading floor. and....why some florida residents are preparing to be flooded with money trouble. but first for today's teens, will the future be brighter or dimmer than previous generations? the surprising answers from an allstate poll in today's 'in the know' message."

suffwith a deadly disease. i was one of them. my disease was obesity and after consulting with my doctor, i received the effective treatment i needed. please join the obesity action coalition

to acknowledge obesity as a disease visit obesity action dot org to sign an open letter pledging your support and for more information about how to talk to your doctor about weight loss and treatment options. together we can make a choice to end obesity now. a public service from the obesity action coalition. homeowners in florida are bracing for a new law that takes effect tomorrow. they will suddenly be required to pay thousands of dollars for flood insurance -- jackie keenan takes us to one of the areas that will be hardest hit. when joyce and colin elston moved to florida this year, they had dreams of living out their retirement watching sunsets from their porch. but now a storm is blowing through their 2300 square foot, home. the couple's flood insurance premium is about to drown out their retirement fund. the cost will spike from $1,200 per year to $16,000. we've worked hard, we've saved our money, we put a big chunk of money in this house - a

small increase fine, but this kind of increase is crazy. program went into the red after a string of storms in 2005, including hurricane katrina. the bill ends florida's subsidies to flood-prone homes, a lifesaver that's been in place for decades. in florida, you have to carry flood insurance if you have a mortgage and live in a flood zone. here - pinellas county will be the hardest hit area in the country- with 33,000 homeowners affected. and not just mansions on the beach or innercoastal, they're modest, older homes set inland. homeowners will see premiums rise by 20 percent a year until the full amount is actualized. but new homeowners who bought after june of 2012, like the elstons, are being faced now with bills for that full amount. there are about 5,000 others in the same boat.

if we can't pay it, we may go into foreclosure. more foreclosures is exactly what all the realtors are afraid of here at this coldwell banker office, says realtor pat lins. if you thought it was bad in 2006, we're going to see that same walk away from your house thing - that's what we're really afraid of. pinellas county property appraiser pam dubov says what can happen to this fragile market would be devastating. just as the market was starting to recover we're going to introduce this things that's going to put the breaks on this recovery, the real estate market is reacting by closings falling through. local officials are lobbying congress to delay the bill from being implemented on october 1. they say floridians have paid 16 billion dollars in premiums to the flood program, but have only made a quarter of that in claims: of course, that can all change if a hurricane hits, which could cause a lot of flooding. for first business news, i'm jackie keenan. florida senators marco rubio and bill nelson are working on ammeding the bill. coming up the hidden price of a

government meltdown. plus...is gridlock good for the economy? views from the trading floor are still to come. stay with us.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪

here we are once again at the precipice of a possible government shutdown. if our representatives in washington cause a government shutdown - we ask, what would that be like and what would it cost. nick schwellenbach is a senior fiscal policy analyst for the center for effective government - an advocacy group for a more effective and accountable government. nick we had 2 partial shutdowns in late 1995. what did that cost us then? > >the white house estimated that it cost about 1.4 billion dollars in 1996 dollars. that would be a hair over 2 billion dollars today. that's probably a low estimate because it doesn't factor in a lot of opportunity costs, inafficiencies that came as a result of the government shutdown but that's the number

we have to work with. > >and it's kind of an educated guess isn't it because when you talk about inefficiences and lost contracts and the like, these things are somewhat intangible and are kind of hard to measure. > >yeah, it's hard to determine what would have happened if the government was operating normally during the 5 and 21 day shutdowns that occurred in late 1995. but it definitely cost local communities that were dependent on national park revenue. the impacts to tourism were felt because visa applications weren't being processed in a timely way, passport applications weren't being processed. but it definitely affected many americans, not those directly even working in the government. > >the treasury says that the government will run out of money on october 17th. so if it happens in the month of october, would it be more catastrophic in terms of inconvenience and disruption this time around? > >if we don't have a deal

regarding the debt ceiling by october 17th, that would be much worse than a government shutdown and the reason why is because treasury bills sort of function as critical currency within our financial system. and if there's basically a drying up of t bills in our system, you could conceivably see something similar that we saw in 2008 where you saw a bit of a credit freeze. which basically crippled world financial markets and led to millions of people being laid off. it wouldn't necessarily be that bad but it conceivably could be. > >it's the unknown aspects that are so disturbing. well, nick thank you so much for sharing with us. all of this is important, sobering information that can so easily get lost in all the rhetoric coming out of washington. thanks again. > >thanks for having me on. bill-- there's more to come on the debt threat. up next--are lawmakers in washington killing the economy by making last minute decisions? 2 different trader views are coming up next in chart talk.

i'm going to pass chemistry, and i'll take it from there. i'm going to do what makes me happy. i'm going to work hard. be independent. live large. make the most of every opportunity. i knew i wanted to go to college. but figuring out how to pay for it? i didn't have a clue. the u.s. department of education has over $100 billion. and that's a lot of money. to help students pay for college. and the free application? you mean the fafsa. i did it online. it was easy. i'm never giving up on my goals. i will make a difference. i'm going to find out how to pay for college. i'm going to college.gov.

today in chart talk we are taking it up a notch with two traders. joining us now,andrew keene president of keeneonthemarket.com and scott bauer of trading advantage. good morning.

is washington putting the brakes on the economy---putting the brakes on wall street or is gridlock good? andrew, we'll start with you. andrew: i definitely think it's putting the brakes on---i don't know about the economy but definitely the stock market. if you see the way we've portrayed it---we've been down seven of the last eight days. since bernanke said no tapering, we are off to the races. everybody thought we were going to take all new time highs--keep going higher and higher. but this is putting on a brake---i don't know about the economy but definitely the stock market temporarily. angie: scott? scott: i would take the other side of that. yes, we've been down seven of the last eight days but we still haven't dropped to that magic 3 to 5% range that everybody thinks that there's going to be this pullback. in fact, with earnings season coming up right now, i think we're going to see really strong earnings and the economy continue to grow into the end of the year. angie: goldman sachs says a shutdown would actually be good for the financial markets and the economy. do you agree with that at all andrew?

andrew: i've seen a lot of activity in the put side in wells fargo. xlf we saw a 200 thousand lot put spread in december. so someone's taking some big bearish bets to the downside here. they've actually looked weak. they looked very similar to the s &p. all time highs, they're rolling over. i'm actually in puts in wells fargo. earnings should be interesting---should matter where the stocks could go from there. angie: scott, what's your play? scott: you're seeing the xlf back off a little the financials have been the leader the entire year. i think this is an opportunity to actually get into the financials. we've seen this pullback there. we've seen it across the board. i think it's a great time ahead of earnings to be in financials. angie: scott bauer, andrew keene thank you so much. coming up tomorrow, a check on how manufacturing in the u.s. is holding up as lawmakers grind their way to way to a decision on the budget and the debt limit. thanks so much for watching today. from all of us at first businesss, have a great monday!

>> woman: the following is a paid presentation for the nuwave precision induction cooktop, brought to you by the makers of the number-one-selling nuwave oven. >> announcer: when you turn on your cooktop, do you really know what the temperature is? no-- you're just guessing. are you too busy to watch what you're cooking? tired of all that burnt food going to waste? worried about your kids getting burned or a loved one starting a fire in the kitchen? well, those problems are a thing of the past. introducing the revolutionary precision induction cooktop from nuwave, the leader in portable induction cooking technology.